By Bill Bryant
After PBP it is normal to ask about the DNF rate and compare it to previous editions of the event. Here is a list by percentage of dropouts in each of the PBP events organized by the ACP.
Year DNF% Year DNF%
1931 27% 1948 8%
1951 17% 1956 29%
1961 30% 1966 22%
1971 19% 1975 17%
1979 11% 1983 10%
1987 19% 1991 20%
1995 17% 1999 17%
Averaging all the ACP Randonneur PBPs since 1931, we see an overall DNF rate of 18.8%; but this is a quick-n-dirty "average of the averages" that gives equal weight to each of the fourteen events. Since the numbers of riders in PBPs of bygone years was vastly smaller, it isn't that accurate. To get a better figure, I also divided the total dropouts by the total starters since 1931 and came up with a more accurate 16.7%. By either standard, this years 16.6% is not bad at all. Not counting some wide variations in the early editions of PBP, the DNF rate has been around 17-20% much of the time. Curiously, what was going on in 1979 and 1983? Neither the weather nor the riders were appreciably better in those years, so why the noticeably improved DNF rates? Looking back at the early events that had such high DNF rates, weather was an important factor: 1931, 1956 and 1961 had fierce wind and rain, while 1966 saw very hot temperatures during the daytime hours of the event. But poor weather doesn't tell the whole story; the best year for riders making it back to Paris within the time allowance was 1948. Only 8% of riders quit, yet from my reading of ACP accounts, the weather was pretty awful that year too, making it difficult to draw hard conclusions. Indeed, 1995 saw excellent weather for virtually the entire event, one would think it would have had a better DNF rate than, say, 1983, which had somewhat worse riding conditions. At any rate, the ACP professed goal of a 7% DNF rate for 1999 seems quite unrealistic when one looks at the statistics for all the PBPs they've promoted. Trying to improve upon the unusual 1948 DNF average would be a pretty tough thing to do. Nonetheless, when comparing these numbers, I believe today's Randonneurs are well prepared and just as determined as their older brethren. It might also indicate that we've been lucky with regard to the weather.
Country Entries DNF DNS DNF% Finished
Austria 18 6 0 33 12
Bulgaria 7 2 0 29 5
South Africa 16 4 0 25 12
Norway 30 7 0 23 23
Holland 82 17 6 22 59
Russia 25 3 11 21 11
Canada 69 13 2 19 54
France 2029 348 56 18 1625
Belgium 72 11 1 15 60
Sweden 50 7 3 15 40
Spain 96 11 4 12 81
Australia 70 8 1 12 61
Denmark 139 15 7 11 117
Britain 342 32 7 10 303
Italy 118 10 3 9 105
Germany 94 8 1 9 85
Switzerland 5 0 0 0 5
Costa Rica 1 0 0 0 1
Finland 8 0 0 0 8
Ireland 4 0 0 0 4
Luxembourg 2 0 0 0 2
Ukraine 1 0 0 0 1
USA 411 93 14 23 304
Totals 3689 595 116 2978
Bill Bryant
Santa Cruz, CA